Reviewing Europe’s current Covid statistics one cannot but shudder. It is now clear that an enormous, record-breaking Covid wave is making its way through Germany and central Europe. Astoundingly enough, this is happening on the continent where many countries boast vaccine uptake between 65 and 70% of the total population.
Less than a year ago, Dr. Anthony Fauci stated that an inoculation rate between 60 and 70 percent would bring about herd immunity. According to a report from Axios which was published on December 25 of last year:
“Dr. Anthony Fauci has long cited 60% to 70% as the level of COVID infection/vaccination the country would need to achieve herd immunity — for the disease to fade and life to return to normal…”
Most countries in Europe now fall well within that range on the vaccination count alone.
The effect of the vaccines is further augmented by natural immunity which, according to some experts, may run as high as 50% in some populations. Nearly two years into the pandemic, people in many places have been extensively exposed to the virus and as a result possess natural antibodies. Therefore, inoculating, let’s say, 65 percent of the population with a good vaccine should result in overall immunity in the region of 80 percent. With this kind of immunity levels we should expect, if not elimination of the disease, then certainly a considerable decline in its occurrence.
It is, however, now amply clear that despite its high vaccination ratios Europe is nowhere close to achieving the promised relief. Not only that, but things are, in fact, much worse than they were at this time last year when there were no vaccines around.
Even though we do not know the exact threshold required for herd immunity against Covid 19, one thing is certain. If the vaccines worked the pandemic should be now largely under control, given Europe’s high vaccine uptake. Unfortunately, the opposite is the case. Even as we speak, Germany and central Europe are in the grip of the worst wave since the beginning of the pandemic. This wave is likely to travel further and sweep through other parts of the old continent.
We will show you the reality of the situation by presenting the relevant data in an easy-to-see, straightforward way. We do this by juxtaposing graphs that depict vaccination rates with graphs that show case rates in the countries we discuss.
Neither side in the vaccine debate would dispute the validity of the data presented below. The data is taken from the Google Coronavirus Statistics tool which draws its material from official sources and government databases. The data is publicly available and widely accessible. If you wish to verify or reproduce the data used in this piece, you can do so easily by going to google.com and typing “coronavirus” plus the name of the country whose statistics you want to examine. Once the country’s data comes up, you can choose in the horizontal menu that appears under the term “Statistics” what type of date you want to see: “New Cases” or “Vaccinations.”
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Vasko Kohlmayer (email) was born and grew up in former communist Czechoslovakia. He is the author of The West in Crisis: Civilizations and Their Death Drives. You can keep up to date with his writings by subscribing to his newsletter Notes from the ‘Twilight Zone’ on Substack.
Copyright © Vasko Kohlmayer
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